← JEUX KINGDOM DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP

Horse and TaxesTier 1

at JEUX KINGDOM DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP

decks
4 (16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25 16-7-2
overall winrate
68.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
74.9% avg ELO +9.2 per match
expected value
62.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
68.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1329 · median 1304 · range 1247–1460 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
915 Q1 1216 Q3 1412 1563
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 70.8% 12 8-3-1 70.8% 65.6% 73.9% +10.2
Fire Suzaku 25.0% 4 3-0-1 87.5% 68.8% 69.3% +12.4
Fire Crux Mage 16.7% 6 3-3-0 50.0% 50.0% 61.7% +6.2
Fire Aggro 8.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.7% -22.9
Wind Seiryuu 8.3% 0
Fire Slimes 4.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 65.3% +24.4
Fire Suited 4.2% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 4.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.7% +20.4
Water Genbu 4.2% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Horse and Taxes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -0.50 0 1 0
Expose Darkness -0.50 0 1 0
Cleric Robes -0.50 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.50 0 1 0
Evercurrent Raider -0.50 0 1 1
Wind Resonance Bauble -0.50 0 1 1
Searing Rebuke +0.50 1 0 1
Nullifying Mirror +0.50 1 0 1
Staggering Strike +0.50 1 0 0
Volda, Smolder's Spite +0.50 1 0 0
Cinder Geyser +0.50 1 0 0
Fast Cure +0.50 1 0 0
Tether in Flames +0.00 1 1 0
Nullifying Lantern +0.00 1 1 0
Varuckan Acolyte +0.00 1 1 0
Dream Fairy +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/32563/archetypes/Horse and Taxes